JayBarcelo
09-09-2005, 06:23 PM
================================================== ============**=
This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
================================================== ===============
A s t r o A l e r t
07 September 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com
INTENSE SOLAR FLARE PROMPTS WARNINGS
A very strong class X17.1 solar flare exploded on the Sun at
17:40
UTC (1:40 pm EDT). This is a significant event. Very few solar flares
ever reach the X-class rating, and far fewer ever exceed an X10 level.
Only a few solar flares each solar cycle (a 10-year period) exceed an
X10 rating. An X17 solar flare is 17 times more intense in x-rays
than a
class X1.0 (which is, by itself, a very energetic event). This
particular event was strong enough to saturate one of the x-ray
sensors
on the GOES spacecraft and very nearly saturated both sensors. This
intense solar flare was visible in white-light by observers at
Holloman
solar observatory in New Mexico.
This event was associated with intense radio emissions and a
strong
high-velocity coronal mass ejection that was ejected well to the
southeast of the Earth. Despite the poor location of this event, there
is a chance the extreme western flanking edge of the associated shock
wave may reach the Earth sometime on 9 September. Prior to that time,
energetic protons from the solar flare may begin reaching the Earth
and
result in an increase in the radiation environment in the near-Earth
space environment. Although no significant geomagnetic or auroral
storming is expected this time, additional possible major solar flares
from this region during the next two weeks could easily provide the
impetus for very strong space weather storms.
The sunspot complex responsible for this event is an
old "friend,"
by the name of Region 10798, which was responsible for producing
periods
of severe geomagnetic storming last month. It's longevity is
impressive,
as most sunspot groups do not survive this long. As it came into view,
NOAA assigned a new number to this region. It will hereafter be known
as
Region 10808 (nick named Region 808).
The fact that this region has produced such a powerful flare
suggests that it contains a complex magnetic topology. It is just now
coming into view around the eastern limb of the Sun and is still too
close to the limb to discern any significant detail. We expect
additional major flares and possibly additional significant major
flares
of X10 or greater intensities, during the next week.
Region 808 will gradually rotate across the solar disk during the
next two weeks. During that time, if it retains its volatility, it may
produce some serious effects at the Earth. The health of spacecraft
may
be compromised if additional extreme events are observed. Power grids
may suffer from induced currents caused by intense geomagnetic storms.
Radio communications may suffer from strong scintillation and
absorption. And large regions of the Earth may be able to spot periods
of auroral activity ("northern lights"). Region 808 will be best
positioned to inflict strong impacts on the Earth in approximately
another 4 to 5 days, with maximal effects possible from roughly 11
September through 18 September. Spacecraft will remain vulnerable to
potential strong space radiation storms through to about 23 September.
It is perhaps produnt to note that these strong solar flares pose
no known significant health threat to humans on the Earth. There is a
greater threat to human health for astronauts on the International
Space
Station, but even they are relatively well protected in the heavily
shielded regions of the space station. The combined effects of the
Earth's magnetic field and the ionosphere protect human activities on
Earth. However, some sensitive industries on the ground can be
adversely
effected, including electrical power generation facilities,
ionospheric
radio communications, satellite communications, cellular phone
networks,
sensitive fabrication industries, and others. During the next two
weeks,
these industries may see an increase in anomalous incidents that may
be
attributed to space weather effects.
** End of AstroAlert **
BREIT IDEAS Observatory
http://www.poyntsource.com/BREIT_IDEAS/index.htm
This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
================================================== ===============
A s t r o A l e r t
07 September 2005
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
www.spacew.com
INTENSE SOLAR FLARE PROMPTS WARNINGS
A very strong class X17.1 solar flare exploded on the Sun at
17:40
UTC (1:40 pm EDT). This is a significant event. Very few solar flares
ever reach the X-class rating, and far fewer ever exceed an X10 level.
Only a few solar flares each solar cycle (a 10-year period) exceed an
X10 rating. An X17 solar flare is 17 times more intense in x-rays
than a
class X1.0 (which is, by itself, a very energetic event). This
particular event was strong enough to saturate one of the x-ray
sensors
on the GOES spacecraft and very nearly saturated both sensors. This
intense solar flare was visible in white-light by observers at
Holloman
solar observatory in New Mexico.
This event was associated with intense radio emissions and a
strong
high-velocity coronal mass ejection that was ejected well to the
southeast of the Earth. Despite the poor location of this event, there
is a chance the extreme western flanking edge of the associated shock
wave may reach the Earth sometime on 9 September. Prior to that time,
energetic protons from the solar flare may begin reaching the Earth
and
result in an increase in the radiation environment in the near-Earth
space environment. Although no significant geomagnetic or auroral
storming is expected this time, additional possible major solar flares
from this region during the next two weeks could easily provide the
impetus for very strong space weather storms.
The sunspot complex responsible for this event is an
old "friend,"
by the name of Region 10798, which was responsible for producing
periods
of severe geomagnetic storming last month. It's longevity is
impressive,
as most sunspot groups do not survive this long. As it came into view,
NOAA assigned a new number to this region. It will hereafter be known
as
Region 10808 (nick named Region 808).
The fact that this region has produced such a powerful flare
suggests that it contains a complex magnetic topology. It is just now
coming into view around the eastern limb of the Sun and is still too
close to the limb to discern any significant detail. We expect
additional major flares and possibly additional significant major
flares
of X10 or greater intensities, during the next week.
Region 808 will gradually rotate across the solar disk during the
next two weeks. During that time, if it retains its volatility, it may
produce some serious effects at the Earth. The health of spacecraft
may
be compromised if additional extreme events are observed. Power grids
may suffer from induced currents caused by intense geomagnetic storms.
Radio communications may suffer from strong scintillation and
absorption. And large regions of the Earth may be able to spot periods
of auroral activity ("northern lights"). Region 808 will be best
positioned to inflict strong impacts on the Earth in approximately
another 4 to 5 days, with maximal effects possible from roughly 11
September through 18 September. Spacecraft will remain vulnerable to
potential strong space radiation storms through to about 23 September.
It is perhaps produnt to note that these strong solar flares pose
no known significant health threat to humans on the Earth. There is a
greater threat to human health for astronauts on the International
Space
Station, but even they are relatively well protected in the heavily
shielded regions of the space station. The combined effects of the
Earth's magnetic field and the ionosphere protect human activities on
Earth. However, some sensitive industries on the ground can be
adversely
effected, including electrical power generation facilities,
ionospheric
radio communications, satellite communications, cellular phone
networks,
sensitive fabrication industries, and others. During the next two
weeks,
these industries may see an increase in anomalous incidents that may
be
attributed to space weather effects.
** End of AstroAlert **
BREIT IDEAS Observatory
http://www.poyntsource.com/BREIT_IDEAS/index.htm